Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 27th October

Kinesis Macroeconomic Analysis In the past two days, the EUR/USD currency pair has fallen below 1.16 for the first time in over a week, with the greenback recovering strength and the US 10 Year Treasury Yield steady above 1.60%.  Anticipation for tomorrows’ European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is growing as investors’ continue the countdown for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for the 2nd-3rd November.  The majority of quarterly earnings reports released in the last few days have beaten the forecasts, adding fuel to the ‘risk-on’ scenario of the last few months. For the first time, Tesla surpassed both the $1,000 dollar per share mark and the threshold of $1 BN. Oil and energy commodities are still in the spotlight as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) exceeded the region of $85 for the first time after the pandemic. This may have the effect of exacerbating investors’ fear about inflation. Kinesis Gold Price Analysis This week, the gold price is struggling to hold above $1,800 per ounce. The new trading session started by losing a few dollars, trading at around $1,790, while the bullion price per gram fluctuated between $57.5 and $57.8. Kinesis Exchange - Gold Price in ($/g) It seems that the recovery of the US Dollar, combined with a strong ‘risk-on’ sentiment in the financial markets, arere holding off further gold rallies. Right now, bullion volatility remains low, which is a positive signal.  The current phase for gold appears as a consolidation after its recent recovery. From a technical point of view, only a clear surpass of the $1,820-1,830 threshold would open space for new rallies.  In the weeks ahead, it seems unlikely that this will be the case as the ECB’s meeting is not forecasted to be a significant market mover for bullion. On the other hand, a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve next week could significantly elevate the price. However, the bearish alternative could lead to the price finding its first support zone at the $1,770 mark. Buyers may be active again if the bullion price falls to $1,750. Kinesis Silver Price Analysis Yesterday, the silver price retraced, touching the psychological support of $24 before rebounding to $24.2. The technical picture remains positive as the current decline appears to be a temporary correction after a solid rebound.  In fact, silver is still 6.5% above the price it was traded at just a month ago, and around 3 dollars more than the low reached a few weeks ago. This heavily 'risk-on’ scenario does not seem to be supportive in the short term. It is likely that recent highs above the region of $24.8 – $24.9 will flip this scenario on its head, opening space for new recoveries. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

27/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 25th October

Macroeconomic Analysis At present, analysis of the financial markets shows that investors are in a ‘risk-on’ mode. Last week, the majority of reports detailing US quarterly earnings, presented figures that were higher than the forecasts, confirming a sweeping recovery for the country's economy.  This week, there will be plenty of notable happenings in the macroeconomic calendar. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting to discuss monetary policy is scheduled for Thursday. Coinciding with this, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan will also be in discussion this week, respectively. Major US companies will continue to release quarterly earnings, with the figures of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google to be revealed. Investors will certainly be focusing their attention on the forecast of the GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021, for the Eurozone and the US. Of course, data on inflation will also be noteworthy for investors.  On the Forex (foreign exchange) market, the Australian and New Zealand dollar remain strong, while the EUR/USD trading pair is being traded just above 1.165. After a recent recovery, the British pound could face renewed trouble if the UK government reinstates Covid restrictions - such as control around mass gatherings or the hospitality sector - as the number of cases continues to rise.  A Positive Environment for Precious Metals Last week finished with gold and silver in a strong, bullish trend. Momentum remains positive for these precious metals, as investors are buying to diversify their portfolios. Despite the context of investors in “risk on” mode, there is still an element to investors buying precious metals as a safe-haven asset. So, why is this sudden inflow of precious metals happening? First of all, even if the Fed announce a first rate hike in 2022, interest rates will remain relatively low for a long time, therefore supporting the sector.  Gold and precious metals exist in a very specific niche of the commodities field, but they are still part of them. The major trend for the commodity sector as a whole is still strongly bullish, with some positive reflex on precious metals as well. In addition, the demand for gold and precious metals comes as investors seek a hedge against fluctuating market risk. At the same time, US stock indices indicate that there is still an appetite for risk since they are achieving new highs. With the Federal Reserve soon to announce the beginning of tapering - which already seems well-priced by the markets - the added legal jurisdiction facing Evergrande property tycoon, could have a further impact overall. In addition, the risk of inflation and stagflation has not disappeared just yet.  Gold is often viewed as a barrier against a prospective crisis on the Forex market, which in turn creates a loss of credibility for central banks. After years of hyper monetary expansive policies, this may generate new rallies on precious metals. Moreover, the slowing down of the dollar rally seen in the last two weeks was enough to trigger a rebound. On the other hand, silver is experiencing major physical demand, which is triggering a recovery for both these precious metals. In particular, silver has witnessed solidity in its demand and an expectation for its growth in the last couple of years. This is mostly due to the demand for photovoltaic technology and its use in electric cars component production. Gold Price Analysis The gold price remains in a positive mode. The price is now toying with the resistance placed at $1,800 and a clear surpass of these levels could trigger new rallies. With a potential target at $1,830, there is the later eventuality of $1,900 – 1,920 to consider. Gold price remains in a positive mode, trying to break up the 57.8-57.9 resistance zone ($/g) There will be a clear signal of weakness if prices fall below $1,770, with the trend set to change if prices can break down the support zone placed at $1,745 – 1,750. Analysing the price in dollars per gram, as we can see from the Kinesis Exchange chart, a clear surpass of $57.9 will open space for new recoveries. Silver Price Analysis The silver price is being traded in the region of $24.4 after having tested $24.8 - 24.9 on Friday. It seems that silver is consolidating after the recent rallies, as the price is still 5% higher than just a week prior, and far higher than the support zone of $24. This bullish mode will find further strength if prices break up the resistance placed at $24.9 - $25. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

25/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 22nd October

Macroeconomic Analysis The appetite for risk in the financial market remains considerable. In the last few months, investors' ‘risk-on’ outlook continues after the recent announcement of US major companies’ earnings, which exceeded expectations. It was due to this announcement that the US stock market indices jumped to new highs, confirming the bullish trend. For the time being, it seems that investors are focusing on the possibility that the distribution and supply chain will suffer from the demand witnessed in the whole commodities sector – especially in the energy sector throughout the last few months. At the same time, stagflation risks seem to be ignored or scarcely considered by the markets. Stagflation is characterized by a high inflation rate, slowed economic growth and high unemployment. Despite this, there is still positive momentum in the markets for the moment.  In the next few days, central banks will be back in the spotlight, with the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, with the Federal Reserve expected to announce the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day meeting on the 2nd-3rd of November. Bitcoin: A Small Break after the New Record On a separate note, Bitcoin’s new rally is no small feat. Yesterday, the leading cryptocurrency achieved an all-new historical high, with its price surpassing the former record of $65,000 reached in April 2021 and jumping up to $66,700. In the last few hours, it lost some ground, with a decline to $63,000, as investors took their gains - selling - after the impressive rally. The market cap of Bitcoin has now reached $1.180 million, while the capitalisation of the entire virtual currency sector is now close to $2.5 bn.  Kinesis Money Gold Analysis The gold price has managed to jump again, above $1,790, as momentum continues to improve. Although bullion seems to be looking for a clear directionality, the main scenario remains supportive, with the price still floating in a lateral channel between $1,750 and 1,800 dollars per ounce. A clear break up of the resistance zone at $1,800 could open space for a quick recovery to $1,820-$1,830 where lies the highest level reached by bullion in the last four months. In case of a further breakup, the space for new rallies is relatively broad, as the first key resistance zone is positioned in the region of $1,900 – 1,920. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Since mid-September, silver has topped gold's performance. This is clearly shown, simply by looking at the gold-silver ratio chart. Indeed, the number of ounces of silver required to buy the equivalent of gold has fallen from around 80 to 73. Silver Chart 4h from Kinesis Exchange ($/oz) - Momentum remains strongly positive for silver After a negative summer, the last few weeks have witnessed that the trend for silver has changed, as the grey metals achieved an increase of 7% in the last month. This was a clear surpass of the 2.5% increase experienced by gold.  Analysing the short term scenario, the silver price has overtaken both the $23.7 and $24 mark, confirming the bullish trend. This will set the tone for elevating silver, in the next few weeks, up to $25 – 25.5. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

22/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 20th October

Macroeconomic Analysis In the upcoming meeting, the financial markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce the beginning of tapering - the procedure of reducing liquidity in the system. This process is scheduled to last 6-8 months, ending in the middle of 2022.  Swiftly following this, the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates for the first time after the pandemic. It seems that, for the next few months, the intention of monetary policy brought on by the Fed is relatively clear. In Europe, there is no precise timeline in place as yet, although tapering is expected to start much later. This can be attributed to the fact that both economic growth and inflation levels are lower than those recorded in the US, within the last few months. Despite this, it’s clear that a spike in the inflation rate could flip this scenario on its head. Hence, the report set to be published today concerning price growth in the Eurozone is being carefully monitored by both investors and traders.  In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.4%. Forecasts predict that this index will remain steady, with an additional 3.4% increase for September. Any reports above this level could place further pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to anticipate the next moves. On the other hand, if inflation figures are lower, markets may feel that there is no need for the ECB to act preemptively with hawkish monetary policies. Consequently, if markets expect the ECB to act later, this could result in the depreciation of Eurozone currency, while any hawkish news is expected to strengthen the Euro. In the end, this will, of course, reflect on the price ofo gold and silver, which often rises in conjunction with dovish monetary policies.  Analysing the commodities markets, investors are also looking at Oil Inventories, which has been one of the main drivers for the growth in oil prices. The price of the barrel has climbed above $80 for both WTI and Brent - the two major benchmarks for oil.  Kinesis Money Gold Analysis It is clear that investors are waiting for Eurozone CPI data. For now, it is possible to say that the scenario remains supportive, as buyers are strongly active each time that price falls to $1,760. Gold price ($/g) from Kinesis Exchange - The main trend remains supportive for bullion Yesterday, we saw another quick rally to $1,782, but the price did not manage to continue its rebound, correcting slightly in the final part of the day. Overall, bullion is being traded just a few dollars below, in a scenario that still appears supportive. Kinesis Money Silver Price Analysis Like gold, silver is offering positive signals to investors, as the price is holding above the crucial level of $23.5 with a spot price in the region of $23.8. Yesterday we saw a spike that would permit gold to jump above the 24 dollar mark.  In the last few weeks, we have seen a proper inversion, as investors rediscovered the precious metal, which appeared “cheap” after the falls of August and September. From a technical point of view, the area $24.2 – $24.3 represents an important resistance, and a clear break up of these levels could open space for new recoveries to the peak of $24 reached in early September.  The first support zone is positioned at $23.6, with a danger signal ringing if silver falls below $23.2. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

20/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 18th October

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis Last week the majority of stock indices finished in green, confirming the 'risk-on' mode seen in the last 18 months. This means that we are in phase where investors prefer buying riskier assets. The main bullish market driver came from the US with data confirming that core retail sales had surpassed expectations. In fact, analysts forecasted a decline of 0.2% for September 2021, while the official data certified a growth of 0.7%. Moreover, data collected in August revealed an increase from 0.7% to 0.9%.  When just two weeks remain until the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the majority of investors are now expecting a start to tapering by the end of the year, with an official announcement to come from the upcoming meeting (scheduled for the 2nd - 3rd November). Analysing the economic calendar, the new week has started with China's GDP below expectations. In the next few days, there will be some notable quarterly earnings to consider from companies like Tesla, Netflix and Intel.  In Europe, the main ‘market mover’ seems to be the inflation report, which will reveal the price growth within the Eurozone and the possible time scale of tapering to be instigated by the ECB (European Central Bank).  Kinesis Money Gold Analysis At the moment, the gold price is being traded at around $1,765 dollars per ounce, after it was not able to hold out on previous gains. This was just after the rally it experienced in the middle of the week when its price jumped above $1,800. Gold price in $/g from Kinesis Exchange (4h chart). Bullion was not able to hold the gains achieved in the middle of the week, slowing down below $56.8 Overall, in the last few trading sessions, we have seen increased volatility of the gold price, with a bullish acceleration on Wednesday, followed by a correction on Friday. The main catalyst behind this new decline was US macroeconomic data related to retail core sales, which was well above expectations.  From a technical point of view, we have seen some interesting rebound signals, as buyers are showing strength every time the price gets closer to the support zone of $1,750 per ounce.  Despite this, the rebound to $1,800 was perhaps too quick, causing sellers to add more pressure on gold. This quick bearish impulse was helped by the positive macroeconomic data which revamped a 'risk-on' scenario on the markets. It should be pointed out that buyers reacted quickly, causing the price to hold above $1,760.  Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Like gold, silver prices also slowed down on Friday afternoon, after a week of gain. Despite the decline seen in the final part of last week, the main trend seems to be changing, as silver is still two dollars higher than the low it reached in the last few days of September. In fact, the fall on Friday didn't manage to break down the zone of $23 per ounce, with the price bouncing back above that pivotal level of $23.3. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

18/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 15th October

Glory for Gold and Silver - A Rebound for Precious Metals In the last few weeks, investors’ attention has focused on the energy sector, with a rally for natural gas, as well as WTI and Brent (the two main benchmarks for crude oil pricing). Finally, this week saw some significant positive movements from both gold and silver, with an improved technical outlook on these two precious metals. In fact, a decline in the return on US treasury yields and the consequent slowdown of the greenback was enough to generate a quick rebound for gold and silver. Earlier this week the US inflation rate was released, 5.4%, which was 0.1% per cent above what was to be expected. However, instead of investors selling their gold and silver as we approach the beginning of the tapering from the Federal Reserve, they decided to buy precious metals as a hedge against inflation.  In other words, the potential announcement of the beginning of tapering (the process of reducing the liquidity in the system) seems to have already been fully, or at least partly, priced by the markets. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis The gold price has broken up the resistance zone of $1,770, jumping to $1,800. As previous analysis reported, the technical scenario is improving and this rally confirms this hypothesis. Gold price from Kinesis exchange - 4h chart Bullion has now returned in the former lateral channel between $1,790 and $1,820, with the price now stalling between $1,790 and 1,800. A clear surpass of the psychological threshold of $1,800 could pull up the price to $1,820 and eventually to $1,835, which are the next targets in the case of further recoveries. Concerning the price of gold per gram, it’s worth analysing the above chart: the outlook is clearly improving, as bullion climbed to $58, before slowing down to $57.7 earlier this morning. If the price could surpass $58.2, there could be space for a new recovery to $59 dollars per gram, while a fall below $57.2 could give new strength to sellers. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The price of silver continues to consolidate after yesterday's rally and this can be understood as a positive signal. Finally, the rebound is on the way to becoming a proper inversion. It is true that the price of silver recovered more than two dollars (around 10%) from the low it reached just two weeks ago. From a technical perspective, as was forecasted in our recent analyses, the clear surpass of $22.7 first, and now $23, has opened space for further recoveries. It seems that investors realised – suddenly – that silver was relatively cheap, while the fundamentals are positive. Indeed, silver’s physical demand is expected to remain solid in the next few years, mostly thanks to the demand triggered by the production of electric cars and photovoltaic technology. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

15/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 13th October

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis Today’s economic calendar is relatively busy, with significant macroeconomic data to consider from several countries.  Starting with the US, it’s important to first observe the US CPI and the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CPI, an acronym for the Consumer Price Index, will enlighten investors about the recent pressure of inflation on the economic system.  Any data above the forecast of 0.2% could be a driver that prompts the Federal Reserve to act rapidly with the beginning of tapering.  Alternatively, data below what was expected could cause increasing uncertainty about the timing of the Fed’s next movements. It should be noted that recent US labour data (nonfarm payrolls) already deviated from those expectations.  Another piece of macroeconomic data following a similarly weak trend will prove to be even more important, potentially complicating the timing for scaling back bond purchases. It could seem obvious, but it is worth repeating that: from a theoretical point of view, data above expectations has a good chance of triggering further rallies of the greenback - adding pressure on gold and silver. On the other hand, a moderate CPI below the forecast could pull down the dollar and, in doing so, elevate bullion.  With regard to the FOMC’s meeting minutes, traders and investors are curious to discover more about the Federal Reserve’s predictions for the US economy and if there will be a further suggestion as to the timing of tapering. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis The gold price is holding strong above the $1,750 mark. Bullion jumped above $1,760 per ounce, lifted by a modest decline of the US 10-year-yields leaving the price just a few dollars from the $1,770 resistance zone. A solid surpass of this level could open space for new recoveries - a good sign for investors. Gold price 1h chart from Kinesis Exchange - Bullion is consolidating above $56.5 per gram In the last few days, buyers were strongly active in the $1,750 region, with significant bids that resulted in a sustained price above this support zone. A fall below this level could denote weakness, but now there is a heightened chance the price will hold above the resistance zone of $1,770.  What is clear: investors are once again anticipatory and looking on as US inflation data and the FOMC minutes (Federal Open Market Committee) are unveiled. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The silver price has climbed again above the resistance zone of $22.7 as buyers are building increasing amounts of pressure. We are seeing a growing number of positive signals for the precious metal, improving both the technical and the graphical scenario. A confirmation above $22.7 will be another positive element, opening space for new rallies of the silver price. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

13/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 11th October

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis As the new week commences, US market recovery is showing some weakness. The nonfarm payrolls released on Friday were a disappointment for market analysts, revealing a minor growth of less than 200,000 in non-agriculture job positions. This was drastically lower than what was forecasted: an increase in around 500,000 units. US unemployment is currently on the decline, experiencing an 18-month-low, as a result of many people exiting the job market. In a few words, US employment growth is slowing. With only 3 weeks to go until the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there is added uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve’s next decision will be. It still seems likely that the US central bank will start the process of reducing liquidity in December, having previously announced this in November’s meeting. However, there is still some doubt about how the pace of tapering will be carried out, especially if further macroeconomic data confirms it will slow down during post-pandemic recovery. Moreover, US bankers could be forced to postpone the first official interest rate until after the pandemic, which is now expected in the second half of 2022. Despite the unfulfillment of expectations from US labour data, there have not been significant directional movements on the markets. The EUR/USD pair is still being traded below the 1.16 mark, in a trend that appears favourable to the greenback, while the oil benchmark for both WTI and Brent (the two main categories of crude oil) are gaining, and reaching new records. Gold reacted to the US Nonfarm payrolls with a spike to $1,780, before slowing down again to $1,760. Silver offered a positive signal consolidating above the $22.50 per ounce threshold and attacking the $22.7 resistance. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Gold has started the new week with a modest decline, with the price traded in the $1,755 region. From a technical point of view, bullion is still looking for a clear directionality. Despite this, the price is holding above $1,750, a fact that could be considered as positive, or at least, as a consolidation. Gold price in ($/g) from Kinesis Exchange - Bullion jumped above $57 on Friday after nonfarm payroll data, before slowing down to $56.5 Initially, the response of gold towards U.S. labour data was extremely positive before bearish factors reacted, pulling down the price to $1,760, showing that there is still some selling pressure on the markets. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Little by little, silver is showing some interesting signals of recovery. On Friday, we saw a massive difference between gold and silver behaviour. In fact, the gold rebound vanished in a couple of hours, while silver managed to hold above $22.50 per ounce, attacking the $22.70 resistance and confirming investors’ growing interest. From a technical point of view, a solid confirmation above $22.70 in the next few trading sessions will open space for new recoveries. It appears that the first target is placed at $23, but there could be significant space for further rallies to the $23.8 - $24 area. Just a few months before, silver was traded at $30 per ounce. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

11/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 8th October

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis The rally between oil and natural gas has been a trending subject over the past few days, with the benchmark of energy sector oil pricing now reaching a long term high. Yesterday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI crude oil) price rebounded above $79 dollars - after a slight fall to $75 just before - confirming investors have a clear appetite for this asset which is now being traded at 30% above its pre-covid levels. The Natural Gas Futures price is still up 130% this year to date (YTD), despite experiencing a 15% decline from the peak of $6.50. This sharp appreciation is a sign that natural gas is becoming one of the most lucrative assets of 2021 so far. Aside from the energy sector and the related inflation risk, investors' focus is, once again, set on the reports that will reveal U.S. labour data. In just a few hours the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, with the expectation of data showing an increase in around half a million jobs. On Wednesday, the US ADP National Employment Report beat those expectations.  These reports should have been good news for the price of the U.S. Dollar, adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve for a quick start to tapering. Consequently, the new declines in gold were to be expected, but this has not yet been the case.  In fact, gold held above $1,750, while silver is still being traded in the region of $22.5 per ounce. The resilience of gold and silver could be seen as a positive signal, with buyers now showing a growing interest in the two metals. Albeit, this is occurring at a point when gold and silver are still looking for a clear directionality. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Today, bullion is still traded above $1,750, despite the strength of the U.S. Dollar. From a technical point of view, as long as the price holds at this threshold, little volatility can be expected, while a fall below $1,750 could pull the price down to a new test in the region of $1,725 – 1,730. Gold price in $/g - 4h chart - Bullion remains traded above $56/g while investors await NFP data A clear surpass of $1,770 would be a positive signal, opening space for new recoveries, but it seems clear that investors are watching on, waiting for the upcoming U.S. labour reports and the Federal Reserve’s next move. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Silver has temporarily surpassed the resistance zone positioned at $22.6-22.7 per ounce, quickly jumping up by 1% to $22.80. Despite this positive signal, silver pricing didn't hold out on its previous gains, promptly retracing back to $22.5, making a start in red during the final session of the week. After weeks of a strong decline, momentum is slightly improving, however, it’s not yet possible to declare the current rebound as an inversion. In addition to this, the strength of the greenback is complicating the further recovery attempts of silver. A fall below $22.3 could open space for further declines, while a solid surpass of $22.7 will be a positive sign. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

08/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 6th October

Oil Price Analysis – WTI close to $80 per barrel This week, the WTI crude oil price just reached a new 7-year-record after the OPEC, a group of oil-producing countries, decided not to accelerate plans for increasing the supply, in an effort to maximize profits. WTI is an acronym for West Texas Intermediate, the company responsible for trading and delivering light, sweet oil at Cushing, Oklahoma. In a few words, it is the benchmark for U.S. oil standards, the main rival of Brent - an oil carried from the Northern European Sea. On the 20th of April 2020, in the middle of the first wave of the pandemic, the WTI price fell – for just a few hours - below zero, reaching a historical low of minus 37 dollars. The collection tanks in the warehouses were full, with a clear situation of oversupply. A year and a half later, the WTI benchmark is close to $80, but this time a new scenario is at play. The liquidity injected into the system by central banks and the easing of restrictions ramped up overall demand, is resulting in a continued recovery of the price. This situation is, of course, having a significant impact on inflation rates, which jumped to 5.3% in the U.S. and 3.4% in Europe. Aside from inflation, the risk of a global energy crunch is a factor to consider, as prices continue to rise with demand exceeding pre-covid levels. From a technical point of view, the dominant trend is still positive for the pricing of WTI and Brent. However, the fundamentals - a growth of demand while the supply remains static - seem to be the main driver of oil's rally against other energy supply alternatives, in this case. WTI and Brent have gained around 60% this year to date, but the outperformer is natural gas, with a jump close to 150%. Due to this, investors are now looking carefully at the energy sector, with the trend showing an upwards slope, despite sudden changes in market behaviour. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis At present, the gold price is being traded just above $1,750, looking for a clearer directionality as investors await the U.S. labour data. Gold price from Kinesis Exchange - 1h chart - The price is holding above the support zone of 56.3 ($/g) Today, the session started in red with the dollar remaining strong, and the fiat pair: EUR/USD, being traded below 1.16. The bullion rebound, seen yesterday, after the test on the support zone of $1,750 was a positive signal. Once the price approaches this level, buyers appear to be active, resulting in price hikes. However, as long as the price remains above the aforementioned threshold, there could be space for further recovery, since gold is still down 7% this year to date (YTD).  As mentioned, investors are now focusing on nonfarm payrolls (NFP), with reports such as the ADP National Employment Report to be published later today and the NFP to be released on Friday.  What’s clear is that the gold price is holding, despite the oil rally. Although, the climbing oil prices are an inflationary driver, which could add pressure for the Federal Reserve to suddenly instigate the tapering process - resulting in a potential weakness for gold. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The silver price is declining slightly but is still being traded in the region of $22.5. In the last few days, we have seen increasing signals of recovery, even if it is still too early to declare a proper inversion of silver. The buyers' pressure has not yet managed to break up the resistance zone of $22.60 - 22.70. A clear break-up of these levels will open space for a quick rebound above $23. Sellers could regain strength if the price falls below $22.3, with space to reach a new test of $22. This past week, the levels reached ($21.5) suggest that it's unlikely pricing will be retested in the short term. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

06/10/2021